Capacity growth, YEKA auctions, the post-YEKDEM era and curtailment risk: what awaits investors in 2026.
Turkey's installed wind capacity has grown manyfold over the past decade and now stands at roughly 14 to 15 GW. Wind supplies around 10% of total electricity generation. 2026 will be both an opportunity and a year of restructuring for the sector.
YEKA and new capacity
Renewable Energy Resource Area (YEKA) auctions remain the main gateway for large-scale wind projects. They weigh local equipment content together with price competition. At Karataş we benefited from the long-term financing and price certainty this model provides.
The post-YEKDEM era
The YEKDEM feed-in support periods of first-generation wind farms are starting to expire. These plants must now sell at market prices or through bilateral contracts. Long-term corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) stand out for producers wanting protection from price swings. We allocate roughly a fifth of our portfolio to this model.
Grid and curtailment risk
Transmission capacity is limited in the Aegean and Thrace, where wind is strongest. At some hours the grid operator may ask for output curtailment. This risk makes storage investments attractive. Battery systems planned at Çakmaktepe and Aksuyolu will shift part of the curtailed energy to peak hours.
The repowering opportunity
Replacing 1.5-3 MW turbines installed between 2010 and 2015 with larger-rotor machines can double output on the same site. Because roads, connection points and permits are reused, it is faster than a new project.
Financing
Exchange rates and interest rates are the main drivers of project finance cost. Non-YEKDEM contracts with revenues indexed to the dollar or euro are attractive to international lenders. Domestic banks offer lira loans on shorter terms.
Our outlook for 2026
New capacity will keep arriving, but the quality of growth will be defined by grid integration, storage and corporate buyer demand. Our priorities are to run existing sites efficiently and deliver new projects in harmony with nature and communities.
A checklist for investors
- Clarifying grid connection capacity and likely curtailment hours at the start of the project
- A long-term maintenance and availability guarantee from the turbine supplier
- Not leaving revenue entirely to the spot market; fixing at least a third through long-term contracts
- Building community and environmental permit conditions into the contract timetable
Projects that manage these four items well can keep financing cost and return expectations stable despite market swings.
Local manufacturing and jobs
The domestic share in tower, blade and generator manufacturing is growing. This not only cuts imports but creates jobs for technical high-school graduates around sites. We run a joint technician programme with vocational schools and aim to raise the local supplier share every year.